Solution based hypothesis testing.
Custdev should inform you solution hypothesis but it is a means to an end not the end. If you believe you are creating something that does not solve a problem OR something where the problem does not need to be proven again (we can debate this later) then just start running solution based experiments.
If you keep startup metrics for pirates in mind, first prove ACTIVATION, THEN SATISFACTION VIA REVENUE RETENTION OR REFERRAL THEN PROVE GROWTH BY TESTING NEW ACQUISITION CHANNELS.
A good example of a solution based hypothesis is something that incorporates a user ACTION based on your VALUE PROP.
I believe that N PEOPLE IN MY CUSTOMER SEGMENT WILL TAKE X ACTION IN EXCHANGE FOR MY SOLUTION (or in exchange for the belief that they will get my solution (we can debate that later). This is where you can run a "high hurdle MVP".
When you prove DEMAND for your solution or the idea of your solution, you can test SATISFACTION. You should keep running experiments until a reasonable number of people are satisfied.
I believe that N PEOPLE who were activated will EITHER RETURN, PAY ME, OR TELL x friends who activate by this date, if I deliver x solution y way.
Once you get there - you have growth hypotheses. At this point they should be easier than the random startup who just starts a marketing campaign. You know exactly who your customers are and what keeps them coming back, what makes them happy etc. You have learned by experimenting and know where to reach them, you know what converts on your site and what doesn't. You take all of that knowledge and use it to INTELLIGENTLY and SCIENTIFICALLY acquire more users.
If you keep startup metrics for pirates in mind, first prove ACTIVATION, THEN SATISFACTION VIA REVENUE RETENTION OR REFERRAL THEN PROVE GROWTH BY TESTING NEW ACQUISITION CHANNELS.
A good example of a solution based hypothesis is something that incorporates a user ACTION based on your VALUE PROP.
I believe that N PEOPLE IN MY CUSTOMER SEGMENT WILL TAKE X ACTION IN EXCHANGE FOR MY SOLUTION (or in exchange for the belief that they will get my solution (we can debate that later). This is where you can run a "high hurdle MVP".
When you prove DEMAND for your solution or the idea of your solution, you can test SATISFACTION. You should keep running experiments until a reasonable number of people are satisfied.
I believe that N PEOPLE who were activated will EITHER RETURN, PAY ME, OR TELL x friends who activate by this date, if I deliver x solution y way.
Once you get there - you have growth hypotheses. At this point they should be easier than the random startup who just starts a marketing campaign. You know exactly who your customers are and what keeps them coming back, what makes them happy etc. You have learned by experimenting and know where to reach them, you know what converts on your site and what doesn't. You take all of that knowledge and use it to INTELLIGENTLY and SCIENTIFICALLY acquire more users.
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